BBC Preview: Wright should be all right in Philly

For even more statistics and advice to help you set your Baseball Challenge lineup, check out Tristan's Week 13 Fantasy Forecaster!

It might seem hard to believe, but Week 13 marks the next-to-last week in Segment 1 of the Baseball Challenge season.

With two weeks left to make your move -- and I've sure got quite a move I need to make, ranking just outside the top 1,000 -- it's time to let go of the long-term investments offering only modest totals, and instead seeking favorable matchups first and foremost. Look at it like this: What's the point of retaining a guy you locked at 0.5 cheaper than the market price, if the guy who costs 0.2 more is clearly the better player? As you'll see below in my lineup, it's time to take chances.

I'll address Week 14 in more detail next week, naturally, but in the final two weeks of our "season" (more like a half-season), here are few matchups that stand out, from both Weeks 13 and 14:

• Rangers versus Angels, June 29-July 1, three games: As you can read in my Forecaster, the Angels have owned this series for much of the past half-decade, but it's the Rangers who swept their three games at Rangers Ballpark earlier this season. Texas' offense is in a mighty funk, but all that does is serve to deflate Rangers hitters' price tags, and you can't ask for much more motivation than a set of home games against the team you're fighting in the division.

• Vladimir Guerrero at Texas, June 29-July 1, three games: I might like the Rangers in the early week, but I like Guerrero alone from the Angels' side. He was absent the last time the team headed to Texas, but in his five Angels years he has batted .387 with 12 homers, 32 RBIs and a 1.181 OPS in 44 games at Rangers Ballpark. Wow.

• Mets at Phillies, July 3-5, three games: Mets-Phillies games mean fireworks, and these two teams sure bring out the bats in their meetings at Citizens Bank Park. I know the Mets' lineup is in shambles with so many key hitters absent, but if you play in the daily format, you can still extract a gem or two from this key weekend series. You'll see below I'm keeping David Wright in my lineup; he's a .321 hitter with 15 RBIs and a .986 OPS in his past 20 games at Citizens Bank.

• Rockies versus Nationals, July 6-8, three games: New Colorado manager Jim Tracy has this team on a tear -- they've won of 17 of their past 20 games, during which time they have averaged 6.2 runs with an .888 team OPS. Colorado has won 10 of its past 12 home games and draws the Nationals, baseball's worst team in terms of record (21-49), and second-worst in terms of team ERA (5.17). If you haven't at least considered Rockies hitters in the past couple weeks, you're missing out.

• The Marlins' entire Week 16, six home games: Again, the Forecaster has the facts, but the Marlins have mastered the Nationals in recent seasons, especially at home. Florida has also been on a roll offensively, averaging 5.1 runs per game with a .294 batting average, 16 home runs and an .813 OPS in its past 12 contests. Hot tip: Cody Ross is a .346 hitter with a 1.023 OPS in 22 games in June.

Tristan's top three pitching staff values

1. St. Louis Cardinals (SF-4, @CIN-3 -- two-start pitchers Brad Thompson and Chris Carpenter), 6.0 price tag: This one's a no-brainer; the Reds are in the midst of a massive offensive funk, the Giants aren't remotely threatening in the power department, and Carpenter is one of the most attractive two-start pitchers in the game. It being a seven-game week for the Cardinals helps, too. Thompson might seem the weak link in this rotation, but he has had his share of respectable outings this month, including a five-inning, two-run, five-hit performance to help the Cardinals defeat the Reds on June 2. He doesn't worry me that much.

2. Boston Red Sox (@BAL-3, SEA-3 -- two-start pitcher Jon Lester), 7.1: I don't rank the obvious must-start two-start pitchers in my Forecaster -- you pretty much know what to do with them -- but if I did, I'd have rated Lester ahead of Carpenter this week. For one thing, he's 3-1 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.91 WHIP and 44 strikeouts in 33 innings in his past five starts. For another, he has never in his career lost to the Orioles, owner of a 7-0 record and 2.45 ERA in nine starts against them. BBC (and fantasy) owners might be a little wary of the Red Sox after John Smoltz's 2009 debut turned sour so quickly, but I'm not. I think he'll be even stronger in turn No. 2, and this staff rates one of the hottest in all of baseball.

3. Houston Astros (@SD-4, @SF-3 -- two-start pitchers Roy Oswalt and Brian Moehler), 5.2: Matchups, matchups, matchups, if you're looking to snatch up a cheap staff that would allow you to load up with higher-priced hitters. Houston's staff has actually averaged 15.0 BBC points per game in the month of June; that's the kind of performance you'd typically expect from one of the top 10 teams! Four games at Petco Park, not to mention three at AT&T Park against the Giants' light-hitting offense, maximize the chances the Astros keep up that pace. Maybe it's the gut talking, but I still see Oswalt reverting to form soon. With a schedule like this, an appearance of the Oswalt of old might very well grace Week 13.

Smack talk!

Want to talk smack? Feel free: E-mail me. And don't be afraid to bust my chops. I can take it.

JP-34 in St. Louis writes: Why is Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen not available in BBC? I could use production like that in my outfield!

JP, it takes a day or so for a new player to register in the system sometimes -- he needs stats and a price tag first, but he's just 4.0 as a center fielder now. But regarding the topic of McCutchen, he indeed has been on fire since being promoted on the day of the Nate McLouth trade. In his first 20 big-league games he has 88 BBC points, an average of 4.4 per contest, quite a healthy number. I do think pitchers will begin exploiting him and that per-game number will slip back to 3 or below, but keep riding the hot streak for now.

Daily dips

Monday, June 29 -- Alfonso Soriano, LF, Cubs (versus Zach Duke), 4.8 price tag: Soriano has one heck of a history against the Pirates, batting .382 with 17 home runs, 34 RBIs, 12 stolen bases and a 1.166 OPS in 42 career games, including a .394 batting average and seven of those homers in 21 games at PNC Park. Narrow Soriano's Pirates domination to merely versus Duke, and he's a lifetime .517 hitter (15-for-29) with four doubles and two home runs.

Tuesday, June 30 -- Brian McCann, C, Braves (versus Joe Blanton), 4.1: About the only thing that could make this matchup look more appealing is if it were played in Philadelphia, because McCann is 5-for-6 with two home runs and one walk against Blanton this season, both games in which he accrued those numbers played at Citizens Bank Park. McCann is a .301 hitter with a .923 OPS in 27 home games this season, though, so it's still an extremely favorable matchup.

Wednesday, July 1 -- Scott Hairston, CF, Padres (versus Wandy Rodriguez), 4.1: Call me a Hairston fan, but I like cheaper spot starts when their matchups fall entirely within the favorable side of their splits. Petco Park has never scared him -- he's a .289 hitter with an .888 OPS in 103 career games there -- he's a .365 hitter with a 1.127 OPS versus left-handers this year and he's 4-for-9 (.444 BA) with one double and two home runs in his career against Rodriguez, who has been erratic and homer-prone in his past several starts.

Thursday, July 2 -- Milton Bradley, RF, Cubs (versus Seth McClung), 3.4: I'll take this chance in spite of Bradley's miserable 2009 stat line, because hey, at least he's a .313 hitter with a .906 OPS in 25 games at Wrigley Field this season. McClung tends to struggle against left-handers, allowing a .283 batting average and .865 OPS in his career, so assuming Bradley is back in the lineup, I'd sure use him.

Friday, July 3 -- Manny Ramirez, LF, Dodgers (versus Chad Gaudin), 5.5: This is Ramirez's first day of eligibility to return from his 50-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, and yes, folks, I'm using him in this game. He'll have had more than a week to try to recapture his timing in the minors, he'll be charged up to quiet his critics, and he'll be facing presumably Gaudin, or maybe Josh Geer if the Padres push up their rotation by a day. Ramirez is 7-for-14 (.500 BA) with one double and three homers in his career against those two right-handers.

Saturday, July 4 -- Marcus Thames, LF, Tigers (versus Francisco Liriano), 3.6: Here's another ideal "cheap matchups" type, and Thames has tremendous success in limited time against Liriano, swatting three home runs in five career plate appearances versus the left-hander. To note: Those all came in 2006 and 2008, times in his career Liriano was at his best, so it's not a small sample size to sneeze at. Thames was also a .310 hitter with four homers and a 1.059 OPS in nine games in the Metrodome in 2008, and he's a .323 hitter with a 1.117 OPS and three homers in 31 at-bats versus left-handers this season.

Sunday, July 5 -- Jim Thome, DH, White Sox (versus Brian Bannister), 4.7: He's a lifetime .381 hitter (8-for-21) with two doubles, three home runs and two walks against Bannister, but breaking those down by only games played at Kauffman Stadium, Thome has batted .462 (6-for-13) with all three homers. Thome, in fact, has batted .326 (15-for-46) with two homers and seven RBIs in 13 games at Kauffman between this and last season.

Tristan's Week 13 lineup

Total points: 3,297 (through Thursday).
Percentage: 98.2. Overall rank: 1,007th.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 104th.

C -- Brian McCann, Braves (PHI-3, @WAS-3), 4.1 price tag: I like the matchups, the price tag and the fact that he's a .362 hitter with three homers, 11 RBIs and a 1.025 OPS in his past 16 games.
1B -- Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (@OAK-3, @MIN-3), 5.3: The Tigers face four left-handed starters this week, and Cabrera is a .331 hitter with a 1.008 OPS versus left-handers since the beginning of the 2006 season.
2B -- Ian Kinsler, Rangers (LAA-3, TB-3), 5.2: Six home games. 'Nuff said.
3B -- David Wright, Mets (@MIL-3, @PIT-1, @PHI-3), locked at 4.7, 5.5 market: Citi Field might have sapped his power, but it hasn't hurt his overall BBC production, and besides, these are much more homer-friendly ballparks.
SS -- Hanley Ramirez, Marlins (WAS-3, PIT-3), 5.0: Well done, Hanley! You've finally recaptured the BBC points lead at shortstop from Ben Zobrist.
LF -- Ryan Braun, Brewers (NYM-3, @CHC-4), locked at 4.8, 5.7 market: He's a .348 hitter with 16 RBIs and a .940 OPS in 15 career games at Wrigley.
CF -- Grady Sizemore, Indians (CHW-3, OAK-3), 4.8: Looks like his DL stint was the perfect recipe for his elbow problems. He's 3-for-10 with one triple, one home run and five RBIs in his first two games back on the active roster.
RF -- Justin Upton, Diamondbacks (@CIN-3, @COL-3), 5.8: Matchup playing, pure and simple, and Upton no longer has the splits worry, having batted .357 with a 1.085 OPS in 32 road games this year. Great hitters' parks, these are.
DH -- David Ortiz, Red Sox (@BAL-3, SEA-3), 4.2: He's baaaaaack … and a .310 hitter with six home runs and 16 RBIs in 19 games in June. Time to buy!
Pitching staff -- Cardinals (SF-4, @CIN-3), 6.0.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and a two-time champion of the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) experts league. You can e-mail him here.